2021 Outlook for REITs and Commercial Real Estate: Risk and Resilience
Commercial real estate and REITs are likely to begin to recover in 2021, with the pace of improvement driven by the availability and effectiveness of a vaccine.
January 2021
What is the 2021 Outlook for the Macroeconomy
What didn’t cause the recession is as important as what did.
The outlook for 2021 remains uncertain, in part due to the continuing risks from the coronavirus (as of this writing, new cases of COVID-19 were surging, but three vaccines had been reported to have high success in preventing infection and appear on track to be approved and begin distribution soon). In addition, the lack of any historical precedent complicates projections for next year and beyond. Since the presidential election, the incoming Biden Administration appears more open to fiscal stimulus, which could bolster the economy. The change in administrations, however, brings a degree of uncertainty about possible changes to other policies.
The current recession was caused by dramatic changes in consumer behavior linked to business shutdowns, travel restrictions, and social distancing during the pandemic. The downturn came on more suddenly than any recession in the past, and the magnitude of the declines in GDP and employment in the spring were unprecedented. Economic activity and job growth have begun to recover as parts of the economy reopen, but remain well below pre-pandemic levels.
