Job Losses Are Here. How Will CRE Fare?
“Based on what we know today, I think we will see the employment picture turn negative, but it is doubtful that the impact on growth and the number of jobs lost would be as severe as the Great Recession.”
March 16, 2020 | Erika Morphy | GlobeSt.com
The coronavirus continued its march across the US and its economy. After two weeks of market turbulence and the widespread shut down of events, conferences (ICSC is the latest real-estate show to postpone its event) and large gatherings, the first signs of job losses are beginning to emerge. They range from airlines to port workers to the hospitality industry to the service industry. Next up will be retail, with many national stores announcing closures for the next several weeks.
A US downturn, experts say, is all but inevitable and indeed over the weekend many forecasters began predicting a global recession. One only has to look at China, which just released numbers showing that its economy suffered far more than expected: industrial production, retail sales and asset investment all plummeted.
Commercial real estate is grappling with this data and trying to come to some conclusions about how its own industry will fare. Job losses, obviously, can have an across-the-board effect on CRE’s food groups. The only question is, where will they be and how severe.
