Q3 Preview: Real GDP as a Percent of Previous Peak
August 14, 2020 | Calculated Risk Blog
A key measure of the economy is real GDP. As the NBER committee notes in their business cycle dating procedure:
The committee views real GDP as the single best measure of aggregate economic activity.
We are seeing forecasts of a 15% to 25% increase in annualized real GDP in Q3 2020.
It is important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A 15% annualized increase in GDP is about 3.6% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). Also, a 15% annualized increase would leave real GDP down about 7.5% from Q4 2019.
