Q3 Preview: Real GDP as a Percent of Previous Peak

August 14, 2020 | Calculated Risk Blog

A key measure of the economy is real GDP. As the NBER committee notes in their business cycle dating procedure:

The committee views real GDP as the single best measure of aggregate economic activity.
We are seeing forecasts of a 15% to 25% increase in annualized real GDP in Q3 2020.

It is important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A 15% annualized increase in GDP is about 3.6% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). Also, a 15% annualized increase would leave real GDP down about 7.5% from Q4 2019.

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